Climate Change 101

Climate Change 101

KIM NICHOLAS

The sum of  all of climate science, or of what everyone needs to know about climate change, can be summed up almost like a haiku:

It's warming. It's us. We are sure, it's bad, we can fix it.

This is a very short summary of the 10s of 1000s of research studies and 1000s of pages of IPCC, the UN climate panel, the leading authority on climate change, which consists of scientists and is vetted line by line by the world's governments in their summaries for policymakers. So IPCC is  the grand mothership of where to go when you have climate questions.

If we start with global warming, we're getting very, very close to 1.5 degrees of the Paris Agreement. 1.5 degree  is not a hard and fast line below which everything is fine and above which everything is disaster, but every 10th of a degree makes a huge, huge difference for the people in places that we love. We have very clear evidence that the earth is warming. And we know that unlike previous times in Earth's history, where warming had natural causes, this time, the warming we're experiencing is caused by humans. About three quarters of it is caused by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. About a quarter of warming comes from land use, primarily agriculture.

Those of us who live in rich countries account for about 12% of the global population, and have historically emitted about half of all the C02. This is important because warming is directly proportional to the total amount of C02 in the atmosphere. The main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, lasts in the atmosphere for 1000s of years. To compare, Stonehenge or the Great Pyramids, are about 5000 years old roughly, that's half the time  some of the carbon from today will last in the atmosphere. This carbon legacy is incredibly important.

The disproportionate nature of climate change results in a huge gap between those who've caused the most emissions, and those who are on the frontlines of most acutely feeling the impacts. This disproportionality of climate injustice should be a huge motivation for taking climate action.

A little bit of IPCC history and the 1,5 degree target…

The statements that have come out of the IPCC since 1995, have changed dramatically. Back in 1995, there wasn't strong enough evidence to say anything more than : the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. In other words; it is likely humans were having an impact, but it doesn't specify which direction. Over time, this got more and more certain. The previous IPCC report 2013, said: it's extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid 20th century. The IPCCs definition of extremely likely means more than 95% certainty. The latest IPCC report from 2021,says it's indisputable that human activities are causing climate change. So now it is just a fact, there is no doubt that the current warming is caused by humans. Also, we know where those greenhouse gasses come from, both geographically and in terms of the activities that cause them. It is from burning fossil fuels, deforestation and land use. This means that there is even more of a link between warming and impacts, meaning how humans caused climate change, but also how that is creating spinoff effects such as extreme climate events, including heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts that are more frequent and more severe. So we know that it's us. And we know that it's bad.

Coral reefs are often one of the most vulnerable ecosystems, where we very clearly can see the impacts of warming and other climate changes. I remember reading this paper in 2007, and it was the first time it really hit me: what the difference between these kinds of abstract temperature targets might look like and what it might mean for people in places around the world. In the article I saw the difference between a healthy, thriving, beautiful ocean and the ocean subjected to more and more warming. And it's just an absolutely different world. This is what we're fighting for. This is why it's so important to limit emissions and to eliminate emissions as fast and fairly as possible. To retain as much life as we possibly can. Retain the conditions that we all need, both the 8 billion people currently alive, the 8 million species we share the planet with today and the future generations, for a good life available to us.

Solutions are simple, but not easy.

The good news is we can fix it, we know what we have to do to stop warming. Basically it is to leave fossil fuels in the ground, and work with instead of against nature, in our production of food and agriculture. Doing those two things could stabilize the climate. But we're not on track to do that yet. The UN Environment Programme and other agencies refer to something  called ‘the production gap’. This alludes  to the difference between what governments have said they would do, with what governments are actually planning to do with where they're investing their money and where infrastructure is still being approved and built, and lastly to where we need to be.

So in order to stabilize the climate to fix it, humans have to completely stop adding carbon to the atmosphere. The main source of carbon is fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. And you see that from where we are, we need to be on this very, very steep and rapid decline, where we're actually shutting down coal, oil and gas ahead of its planned lifetime. Further replacing it with clean energy and eliminating these emissions to the atmosphere. So this gap between where governments have promised to be, where they are and where we need to be is what we're trying to close.

“This is where I hope storytelling can help people understand the scale of the challenge and what can be done.”

The top 10 %; individual change versus system change

In my work, I focus a lot on the global top 10%. This is the group of people who make more than 38,000 US dollars per year. In Sweden, this translates to about 27,000 SEK per month, meaning it includes most people in Sweden, because that's below the median income. It covers  a lot of the people living in Western Europe and North America and Australia, Japan, and New Zealand. This is the group who has historically been most responsible for emissions. If we  look at the household level, we see again, a disproportionality even within Europe, basically, there is a group of the top 10 % but especially the top 1% that are way over our carbon budget (the top 1% is earning 109,000 US dollars per year.) When we talk about system versus individual change, of course, we really need both as they are interlinked. Individual behavior change can help unlock system change and system change will in turn require some behavior change.

But regardless of the link, a really important point is that to actually stabilize the climate, we need system change. We need to have energy, transport, housing, societies that work without emitting carbon, and make it possible for everyone to have a good life. That will be enough for the bottom 90% Starting with the middle 40% and below, to be where we need to be to meet our climate targets and stay within our carbon budget to limit warming.

Further, system change will not be enough to deal with overconsumption by the highest emitters. And that's why I focus on the top 10%. Because I think there's clear numerical evidence that this level of consumption ( and when we think of consumption, we often think of shopping, buying stuff that we can hold in our hands). But what the data show is that the biggest overconsumption comes from hypermobility, from flying and driving, which is an activity largely of the wealthiest.

(Courtesy of Prof. Kimberly Nicholas)

Driving cars, and flying, basically emerges only as a phenomenon in the top 10%, even within Europe. (Only 1% of the global population does half of the flying.)

So I focus a lot on how to reduce these activities to a globally sustainable level. And a lot of that takes cultural change, which is where I think the role of storytellers can be really critical.

It is critical to keep  in mind who can do what, when we're talking about emissions reductions.

Especially important for storytellers dealing with audiences belonging to the 10 %.

So for a high emitting individual, you see that the majority of their emissions comes from driving and flying. There's not a huge amount of emissions they can save by changing their food, either food waste, or food habits and consumption.

“On the global level; industry is the single largest emitter.”

But when we start thinking about who can do what, with an industry consisting of hundreds or perhaps 1000s of different industries: cement, electronics, medical devices and so on there is a huge range of different industries. It's really important and helpful to look at our target audience, look at their emissions and focus on the highest emissions that they have control over. I hope for storytellers to take some of this climate science, these facts and translate them into compelling stories.  We know that feelings are the bridge to high impact actions. In my work, I try to focus on linking facts, feelings and action. Because we know from research that a lot of people have some facts, know that climate change is happening, most people care, but partly they don't know what to do or what matters and has a high impact. Partly, they feel paralyzed; they feel ineffective, like their choices don't matter, they don't see others around them acting. So those are two of the key pieces we need to address to galvanize climate action.

What high impact climate action looks like…

From a study we published in 2021, we identified five roles for this top 10% global group: what are the things that this group can do to take high impact climate action?  We found that as a consumer, as an investor, a role model, a professional part of organizations and as a citizen, there are a number of high impact actions that can be taken. This framework was used by Netflix in their don't look up climate platform, where they consulted my co author, Kristian Nielsen amongst other scientists. Our model was also taken up by the IPCC in their demand side reduction chapter.

• As a consumer, it's to cut as much as possible from flight, car and meat, and if not eliminate them completely, then to reduce them as much as possible, not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.
• As an investor, it's switching to a green bank who's not investing in fossil fuels, divesting any investments and pensions personally and supporting campaigns that work in school, and donating money and time to climate organizations.
• As a role model, it's walking the talk. Taking high impact climate action: we have really clear evidence that this makes a big difference in credibility and affects others willingness to support climate action and to support policies themselves. Talk about that walk so start climate conversations, listen to what others have to say, and bring them into the climate community. Be conscious about social media use and about the art that we create, what we put out in the world, what kind of aspirations are we embedding in that work?
• As a professional, if you're part of an industry, it's about getting your industry on board to do their fair share of meeting the Paris Agreement. Science based targets is an initiative to do that, divesting as a company or an organization, pushing for a whole supply chain and industry to meet standards and be Fossil Free. Or working on making your job a climate job. So take the skills that you have in the things that you already enjoy and are good at and direct them towards climate action.
• And finally, as a citizen, a really powerful high impact role that we have is to elect strong climate champions to vote for. Studies have shown women and politicians with strong climate scores, meaningfully reduce emissions. Joining a political party or organization that's working for climate justice and action, help create media attention, or speak directly to our elected officials, and finally join nonviolent demonstrations.

These are the actions that have been shown to work! We are working to build a climate action guide too, which is an app to take people through their personal choices,  what they can do to have the biggest impact and make the biggest difference for the climate.

References to the data, the links and studies and background for this quick summary can be found  in our monthly newsletter called ‘We can fix it’, as well as in my book: ‘Under the Sky We Make’ (2021).

100 companies in the world are sort of behind 70% of all the emissions.

That is also true. But at the same time, it's also true that more than 70% of emissions come from household consumption. So basically, we have to stop the production and consumption of fossil fuels. It's really important to focus on both of those levers. Efforts to focus on production are things like divesting and supporting the fossil fuel Non Proliferation Treaty, setting caps on production dates, and stop dates for selling fossils, infrastructure equipment. And on the consumption side, it's reducing demand from those who have luxury consumption that can be reduced.

Culture has a really important role in underlining system change or one way that it can do that is by changing norms and values, which helped move collective visions and ultimately help underlie changes in policy and practice. This is  a very deep leverage point. And that can apply across the five superpowers, certainly, so it's not only about consumption, but I do think there's an important role in consumption, because so much of consumption is driven by aspiration of what a good life is? People with means think that a good life is a hyper mobile life. It's a life where you can travel around the world at a heartbeat anywhere you want fast and cheaply. And that's a cultural aspiration that needs to change if we're going to stop climate change, because there isn't a climate friendly way to achieve that. I think that could be one role for cultural artifacts and cultural products like film, but that's certainly not the only way. I mean, I would love to see films that address other issues,such as what it looks like to be a professional, what it looks like to be a high impact climate citizen.

Lastly to all storytellers; ask yourself what can be done to help people understand what their highest impact climate actions are? Focus on top emitters, both the people, the organizations and the groups that are responsible for the large shares of emissions and within that, - where those largest share of emissions come from and focusing on that. Putting your stories in a context and collaborate with scientists!